Monday, March 17, 2003

So the die is cast. Saddam and his sons—plus, I imagine, some of his other toadies—must either leave Iraq within the next 48 hours, or there will be war.

The aftermath of the President’s speech leaves a bitter resolve in the pit of one’s stomach. The most solemn duty a President can perform is to send America’s sons and daughters to war. The President and his advisors have determined that Saddam possesses weapons not seen on a battlefield since WWI—if then, and that he must be disarmed either voluntarily or by force, and according to the polls, most American’s agree with him. Nearly 300,000 American, British, Australian, Czech, Bulgarian, Albanian troops and support personnel—and with the inclusion of other support arrangements, a force comprised of about 30 countries or more in total—are arrayed against Saddam’s regime. All of these forces will act at a time of the President’s choosing, should Saddam not leave immediately.

How must Chirac and the weak leadership of Germany feel tonight? Defiant? Maybe. Fearful of being caught out in lies? Possibly. It appears that Saddam is at least giving the appearance that he will use chemical and biological weapons by issuing chemical/bio protection suits to his troops and moving artillery and chemical/bio capable shells near to our troops in Kuwait. If Saddam’s officers are foolish enough to use them, several things will no longer be in question, if they ever really were:
1) Saddam lied repeatedly when he claimed to have destroyed any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. This past weekend, Saddam spoke to Iraqi TV viewers
admitting that Iraq had such weapons for "defensive purposes" against Iran.
2) World opinion will switch overwhelmingly in favor of the coalition of the willing, led by the US.
3) Should the war crimes trials be televised, they will rivet viewers to their sets beyond anything seen ever, including the "O. J. trial".
4) Chirac and his "coalition of weasels" will lose all credibility among those who give more than a cursory thought to these issues.
5) Tony Blair’s popularity will rise, and his career will be secure.
6) Should the war be fought successfully, and should the President be able to use his popularity to pass his stimulus package in Congress, he will be unbeatable in 2004.
7) Kim Jung Il will pull in his horns somewhat. The presence of one Trident submarine, which I can only imagine is somewhere in the Sea of Japan right now, is enough of a counterforce element to trump Kim’s two fission technology nukes. Add to that the failure of Kim’s recent ballistic missile test, the movement of Air Force fighters and bombers to the region, the movement of anti-missile weapons to Japan, and the face-saving shipment of food stocks from the UN to the region, it seems reasonable to expect that Kim will remain quiet for a time in the face of a display of American military power unfettered by the indecisive controls of a LBJ or a Bill Clinton.
8) France should be held accountable by any country whose soldiers or populace suffer casualties from chemical or biological weapons or through any additional preparations that Iraq made as a result of the delays caused by French "diplomacy". Now those are reparations I’d like to see paid in full.